Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 12.124076 14.864853 17.921803 21.561282 25.752484 30.404013 35.932128
2025-12-07 7.945003 11.353663 15.596518 21.165202 28.173678 36.591543 47.346804
2025-12-14 5.872207 9.504632 14.434048 21.393560 30.726606 42.561494 58.425702
2025-12-21 4.165580 7.620777 12.713081 20.399195 31.300656 45.781120 65.983430
2025-12-28 3.353454 6.811374 12.269531 20.960522 33.835287 51.548325 77.003856
2026-01-04 2.682129 6.043113 11.712113 21.202389 35.830165 56.596337 87.226379
2026-01-11 2.196236 5.465436 11.332465 21.610742 38.019730 61.958698 98.064692
2026-01-18 1.843288 5.042370 11.124337 22.225990 40.509519 67.824435 109.819673
2026-01-25 1.435138 4.386570 10.380048 21.831368 41.340322 71.237204 118.144292
2026-02-01 1.180442 3.992250 10.046416 22.079098 43.174476 76.195662 128.878354
2026-02-08 0.914412 3.479835 9.382776 21.637124 43.798122 79.281684 136.901367
2026-02-15 0.686413 2.977029 8.637181 20.933348 43.885785 81.483313 143.617965
2026-02-22 0.574088 2.781394 8.564566 21.592265 46.522049 88.084873 157.703937
2026-03-01 0.425938 2.401273 7.993586 21.193711 47.258810 91.679977 167.334569
2026-03-08 0.336900 2.176668 7.746875 21.422182 49.134665 97.216859 180.213418
2026-03-15 0.227598 1.790784 6.984548 20.426767 48.611464 98.662351 186.560048
2026-03-22 0.186018 1.674177 6.928015 20.988684 51.102353 105.347920 201.618529
2026-03-29 0.145185 1.526737 6.745509 21.230803 52.967909 111.011379 215.170058
2026-04-05 0.115531 1.414180 6.640698 21.639582 55.183189 117.366909 230.057574
2026-04-12 0.094474 1.334902 6.622942 22.255468 57.851569 124.622570 246.660020
2026-04-19 0.065589 1.157523 6.225194 21.860437 58.384208 128.039354 256.868813
2026-04-26 0.049844 1.061237 6.084717 22.108423 60.280531 134.000629 271.575188
2026-05-03 0.032958 0.914565 5.706590 21.665991 60.647594 137.136908 281.493429